The Gambler's Fallacy: Why the Coin Does Not Remember
A gambler stakes money on chance. The most famous error in gambling has a name, and it is worth learning even if you never bet.
A gambler risks money on an uncertain outcome. The classic mistake even careful gamblers make has a name: the gambler's fallacy, the belief that a run of reds makes black *due*. A fair coin has no memory, and neither does a roulette wheel. It is named after a night in Monte Carlo in 1913 when black came up twenty-six times running.
- Someone who gambles. *A professional gambler.*
- Someone who takes risks. *He is a gambler by temperament.*
Word forms
| Form | Word | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Noun | gambler | A heavy gambler. |
| Verb | gamble | Never gamble borrowed money. |
| Noun | gambling | Gambling laws. |
| Noun | gamble | It was a gamble. |
| Related | wager | A small wager. |
How it is used in a sentence
- The gambler kept careful records of every bet.Professional use.
- Buying the site was a gamble that paid off.Gamble as a countable noun.
- He gambled on the weather holding.Gamble on for a risk taken.
Ideas from the world of betting
- Gambler's fallacy — believing past results change future odds
- House edge — the built-in advantage the operator keeps
- Odds — the price of a bet, and the probability behind it
- Stake — the amount risked
- Chasing losses — betting more to recover, the classic warning sign
*Gamble* is recorded from the eighteenth century, probably from an older word *gamen*, to play, related to *game*. The *-er* ending does its ordinary work.
What is the gambler's fallacy?
The false belief that an independent event is affected by earlier ones — that a coin which landed heads five times is more likely to land tails next.
Gamble or bet?
A bet is one specific wager. Gambling is the activity, and it covers games where no opponent is involved.